federation/out: tweak publish retry backoff

With the current strategy the individual
and cumulative backoff looks like this
(the + part denotes max extra random delay):

attempt  backoff_single   cumulative
   1      16+30                16+30
   2      47+60                63+90
   3     243+90  ≈ 4min       321+180
   4    1024+120 ≈17min      1360+300  ≈23+5min
   5    3125+150 ≈20min      4500+450  ≈75+8min
   6    7776+180 ≈ 2.1h    12291+630   ≈3.4h
   7   16807+210 ≈ 4.6h    29113+840   ≈8h
   8   32768+240 ≈ 9.1h    61896+1080  ≈17h
   9   59049+270 ≈16.4h   120960+1350  ≈33h
  10  100000+300 ≈27.7h   220975+1650  ≈61h

We default to 5 retries meaning the least backoff runs with attempt=4.
Therefore outgoing activiities might already be permanently dropped by a
downtime of only 23 minutes which doesn't seem too implausible to occur.
Furthermore it seems excessive to retry this quickly this often at the
beginning.
At the same time, we’d like to have at least one quick'ish retry to deal
with transient issues and maintain reasonable federation responsiveness.

If an admin wants to tolerate one -day downtime of remotes,
retries need to be almost doubled.

The new backoff strategy implemented in this commit instead
switches to an exponetial after a few initial attempts:

attempt  backoff_single   cumulative
   1      16+30              16+30
   2     143+60             159+90
   3    2202+90  ≈37min    2361+180 ≈40min
   4    8160+120 ≈ 2.3h   10521+300 ≈ 3h
   5   77393+150 ≈21.5h   87914+450 ≈24h

Initial retries are still fast, but the same amount of retries
now allows a remote downtime of at least 40 minutes. Customising
the retry count to 5 allows for whole-day downtimes.

lib/pleroma/workers/publisher_worker.ex

@@ -9,7 +9,11 @@ defmodule Pleroma.Workers.PublisherWorker do
   use Pleroma.Workers.WorkerHelper, queue: "federator_outgoing"
 
   def backoff(%Job{attempt: attempt}) when is_integer(attempt) do
-    Pleroma.Workers.WorkerHelper.sidekiq_backoff(attempt, 5)
+    if attempt > 3 do
+      Pleroma.Workers.WorkerHelper.exponential_backoff(attempt, 9.5)
+    else
+      Pleroma.Workers.WorkerHelper.sidekiq_backoff(attempt, 6)
+    end
   end
 
   @impl Oban.Worker

lib/pleroma/workers/worker_helper.ex

@@ -22,6 +22,15 @@ def sidekiq_backoff(attempt, pow \\ 4, base_backoff \\ 15) do
     trunc(backoff)
   end
 
+  def exponential_backoff(attempt, base, base_backoff \\ 15) do
+    backoff =
+      :math.pow(base, attempt) +
+        base_backoff +
+        :rand.uniform(2 * base_backoff) * attempt
+
+    trunc(backoff)
+  end
+
   defmacro __using__(opts) do
     caller_module = __CALLER__.module
     queue = Keyword.fetch!(opts, :queue)